{"id":13308,"date":"2025-12-20T20:34:53","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T18:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b5%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad-%d9%88%d8%ad%d8%af%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d9%88%d9%85%d9%8a\/"},"modified":"2025-12-22T21:01:58","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T19:01:58","slug":"the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/","title":{"rendered":"The Gas Deal Between Egypt and Israel:  The Logic of Interests and the Limits of National Security By Hossam Badrawi"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs x126k92a\">\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs x126k92a\">\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a\">\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs x126k92a\">\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a\">\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<p data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"415\">I follow with great interest\u2014and with some concern\u2014the intensity of the debate surrounding the gas deal between Egypt and Israel.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"417\" data-end=\"719\">Hundreds of comments have reached me: some supportive, viewing the deal as a smart commercial transaction; others opposed, considering it a strategic and moral mistake. Between the two, the discussion at times drifted away from its essence into personal accusations that I find neither useful nor fair.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"721\" data-end=\"957\">That is why I am writing this article\u2014not to defend one opinion, nor to attack another, but to try to understand the full picture, and to acknowledge that the issue is more complex than a slogan and more dangerous than an ordinary deal.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"959\" data-end=\"1042\">Especially since the devil lies in the details, which I do not claim to fully know.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1044\" data-end=\"1093\">First: What is the deal in its simplest form?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1094\" data-end=\"1488\">We are not talking about \u201cselling Egyptian gas to Israel,\u201d as was the case in the past. Rather, we are talking about importing gas from Israeli fields in the Eastern Mediterranean into Egypt, through an existing pipeline that has been reused in the reverse direction, within the framework of commercial contracts between companies, under a broader umbrella of political and security agreements.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1490\" data-end=\"1541\">The declared objectives of these arrangements were:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1542\" data-end=\"1809\">\n<li data-start=\"1542\" data-end=\"1670\">\n<p data-start=\"1544\" data-end=\"1670\">To benefit from Egypt\u2019s gas liquefaction plants (Idku and Damietta), an advantage most countries in the region do not possess;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1671\" data-end=\"1724\">\n<p data-start=\"1673\" data-end=\"1724\">To transform Egypt into a regional gas trading hub;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1725\" data-end=\"1809\">\n<p data-start=\"1727\" data-end=\"1809\">And at the same time, to fill potential gaps in local market needs when necessary.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"1811\" data-end=\"1877\">Second: Why was Egypt an exporter and then became an importer?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1878\" data-end=\"1955\">This is a legitimate question, and the answer should not be purely political.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1957\" data-end=\"2178\">Egypt exported gas when production exceeded consumption.<br data-start=\"2013\" data-end=\"2016\" \/>Then domestic consumption rose rapidly (population growth, electricity, industry), while investment declined during certain periods, causing the balance to break.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2180\" data-end=\"2351\">Later, the discovery of the Zohr field restored some balance, but the energy sector by nature is cyclical and volatile, affected by prices, debt, investment, and politics.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2353\" data-end=\"2522\">The shift from exporting to importing is not a scandal in itself, but it is an indicator of an imbalance that must be acknowledged and addressed\u2014not denied or justified.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2524\" data-end=\"2589\">Third: Is Israeli gas for local consumption or for re-export?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2590\" data-end=\"2609\">The truth is: both.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2611\" data-end=\"2797\">In years of relative surplus, part of the gas (Egyptian or coming from the Eastern Mediterranean) is liquefied and re-exported, generating revenue and operating important infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2799\" data-end=\"2904\">In years of shortage, priority inevitably goes to the local market, electricity generation, and industry.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2906\" data-end=\"3112\">The problem does not lie in liquefaction itself, but in the deeper question:<br \/>\nDo we have the luxury of relying\u2014even partially\u2014on a strategic adversary for a commodity that directly touches national security?<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3114\" data-end=\"3167\">Fourth: Is the price lower than the global price?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3168\" data-end=\"3210\">There is no single \u201cglobal price\u201d for gas.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3212\" data-end=\"3344\">In general:<br \/>\nGas transported via pipelines is cheaper than liquefied natural gas (LNG), as it avoids liquefaction and shipping costs.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3346\" data-end=\"3434\">During periods of high global energy prices, Israeli gas may appear more cost-effective.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3436\" data-end=\"3595\">But price alone is not enough to judge. There are contractual conditions, minimum quantity commitments, and political risks that cannot be measured in dollars.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3597\" data-end=\"3655\">Is this deal an \u201cextension of deals made before 2011\u201d?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3656\" data-end=\"3698\">Here, history must be separated carefully.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3700\" data-end=\"3878\">During the Mubarak era, Egypt exported gas to Israel via the EMG pipeline (Arish\u2013Ashkelon), before this later stopped, followed by disputes and arbitration between 2008 and 2012.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3880\" data-end=\"4013\">Now, however, the direction is reversed: gas comes from Israeli fields into Egypt through the same corridor after being reconfigured.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4015\" data-end=\"4102\">So similarity in title (gas between two countries) does not mean identity in substance.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4104\" data-end=\"4300\">The substance now is that Egypt is trying to play the role of a \u201cregional hub\u201d by operating liquefaction and trading infrastructure, while at the same time addressing recurring domestic shortages.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"4302\" data-end=\"4364\">Where Is the \u201cNational Interest,\u201d and Where Is the \u201cRisk\u201d?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4365\" data-end=\"4405\"><strong data-start=\"4365\" data-end=\"4405\">Potential gains (if managed wisely):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4406\" data-end=\"4636\">\n<li data-start=\"4406\" data-end=\"4494\">\n<p data-start=\"4408\" data-end=\"4494\">Operating liquefaction plants and creating added value, fees, and logistical services;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4495\" data-end=\"4546\">\n<p data-start=\"4497\" data-end=\"4546\">Diversifying supply sources in years of shortage;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4547\" data-end=\"4636\">\n<p data-start=\"4549\" data-end=\"4636\">Strengthening Egypt\u2019s position as a transit route and hub in the Eastern Mediterranean.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4638\" data-end=\"4654\"><strong data-start=\"4638\" data-end=\"4654\">Clear risks:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4655\" data-end=\"4960\">\n<li data-start=\"4655\" data-end=\"4737\">\n<p data-start=\"4657\" data-end=\"4737\">Relying on a strategic adversary for a sensitive commodity (energy\/electricity);<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4738\" data-end=\"4811\">\n<p data-start=\"4740\" data-end=\"4811\">Regional security and political volatility that could disrupt supplies;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4812\" data-end=\"4960\">\n<p data-start=\"4814\" data-end=\"4960\">The risk that the \u201cregional hub\u201d role turns into a \u201cpressured intermediary\u201d if the domestic market itself is already suffering from gas shortages.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4962\" data-end=\"5011\">Here comes the sentence that sparked controversy:<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"5012\" data-end=\"5086\">\n<p data-start=\"5014\" data-end=\"5086\">\u201cIt is not right to rely on your strategic adversary to provide energy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"5088\" data-end=\"5321\">This is a well-known national security argument. The response usually comes from a political economy perspective:<br \/>\n\u201cWe are not relying completely; we are diversifying, and benefiting from cost differences and existing infrastructure.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5323\" data-end=\"5406\">The disagreement is legitimate\u2014provided it does not turn into personal accusations.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"5408\" data-end=\"5862\">\n<p data-start=\"5410\" data-end=\"5862\">\u201cMy agreement or disagreement with today\u2019s deal has nothing to do with past or future political affiliations. We are talking about a deal under different conditions, at a different time, and in a different market. I am discussing a principle: energy security should not be built on a strategic adversary. At the same time, I do not deny that there is an economic logic presented by supporters. Let us discuss facts instead of distributing accusations.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h3 data-start=\"5864\" data-end=\"5960\">Fifth: Where Does the Logic of Interests End\u2026 and Where Does the Danger of Dependence Begin?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"5961\" data-end=\"5995\">Here lies the heart of the matter.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5997\" data-end=\"6104\">Yes, states deal in interests.<br data-start=\"6027\" data-end=\"6030\" \/>Yes, the modern economy recognizes interdependence even among adversaries.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6106\" data-end=\"6140\">But there is a difference between:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"6141\" data-end=\"6281\">\n<li data-start=\"6141\" data-end=\"6215\">\n<p data-start=\"6143\" data-end=\"6215\">Limited, calculated trade within a framework of diversified sources; and<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"6216\" data-end=\"6281\">\n<p data-start=\"6218\" data-end=\"6281\">Long-term structural dependence in a vital file such as energy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"6283\" data-end=\"6540\">My opinion\u2014and it is only an opinion\u2014is that logic and strategic reasoning warn against building energy security on a single source coming from a strategic adversary, even if the price seems suitable and even if the deal is described as \u201cpurely commercial.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6542\" data-end=\"6742\">This does not mean accusing those who see an economic gain of treason, nor does it mean ignoring realistic calculations. It simply means that national security cannot be managed by market logic alone.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6744\" data-end=\"6861\">The discussion here is not about the past, but about how we think today\u2014and how we disagree without becoming enemies.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6863\" data-end=\"6880\">We may differ on:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"6881\" data-end=\"6989\">\n<li data-start=\"6881\" data-end=\"6940\">\n<p data-start=\"6883\" data-end=\"6940\">Is the deal a temporary necessity or a strategic mistake?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"6941\" data-end=\"6989\">\n<p data-start=\"6943\" data-end=\"6989\">Does economic interest justify political risk?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"6991\" data-end=\"7032\">But what we should not differ on is this:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"7033\" data-end=\"7123\">\n<li data-start=\"7033\" data-end=\"7067\">\n<p data-start=\"7035\" data-end=\"7067\">Asking questions is not treason.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7068\" data-end=\"7123\">\n<p data-start=\"7070\" data-end=\"7123\">Defending economic calculations is not collaboration.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"7125\" data-end=\"7218\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Between these two boundaries alone can a healthy debate be born\u2014within a society that thinks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I follow with great interest\u2014and with some concern\u2014the intensity of the debate surrounding the gas deal between Egypt and Israel. Hundreds of comments have reached me: some supportive, viewing the deal as a smart commercial transaction; others opposed, considering it a strategic and moral mistake. Between the two, the discussion at times drifted away from &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13315,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[208,103,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2025-collective-articles","category-all-articles","category-articles-by-dr-badrawi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Gas Deal Between Egypt and Israel: The Logic of Interests and the Limits of National Security By Hossam Badrawi - Dr. Hossam Badrawi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Gas Deal Between Egypt and Israel: The Logic of Interests and the Limits of National Security By Hossam Badrawi - Dr. Hossam Badrawi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I follow with great interest\u2014and with some concern\u2014the intensity of the debate surrounding the gas deal between Egypt and Israel. 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He is the former head of the Gynecology Department, Faculty of Medicine Cairo University. He conducted his post graduate studies from 1979 till 1981 in the United States. He was elected as a member of the Egyptian Parliament and chairman of the Education and Scientific Research Committee in the Parliament from 2000 till 2005. As a politician, Dr. Hossam Badrawi was known for his independent stances. His integrity won the consensus of all people from various political trends. During the era of former president Hosni Mubarak he was called The Rationalist in the National Democratic Party NDP because his political calls and demands were consistent to a great extent with calls for political and democratic reform in Egypt. He was against extending the state of emergency and objected to the National Democratic Party's unilateral constitutional amendments during the January 25, 2011 revolution. He played a very important political role when he defended, from the very first beginning of the revolution, the demonstrators' right to call for their demands. He called on the government to listen and respond to their demands. Consequently and due to Dr. Badrawi's popularity, Mubarak appointed him as the NDP Secretary General thus replacing the members of the Bureau of the Commission. During that time, Dr. Badrawi expressed his political opinion to Mubarak that he had to step down. He had to resign from the party after 5 days of his appointment on February 10 when he declared his political disagreement with the political leadership in dealing with the demonstrators who called for handing the power to the Muslim Brotherhood. Therefore, from the very first moment his stance was clear by rejecting a religion-based state which he considered as aiming to limit the Egyptians down to one trend. He considered deposed president Mohamed Morsi's decision to bring back the People's Assembly as a reinforcement of the US-supported dictatorship. He was among the first to denounce the incursion of Morsi's authority over the judicial authority, condemning the Brotherhood militias' blockade of the Supreme Constitutional Court. Dr. Hossam supported the Tamarod movement in its beginning and he declared that toppling the Brotherhood was a must and a pressing risk that had to be taken few months prior to the June 30 revolution and confirmed that the army would support the legitimacy given by the people\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/hossambadrawi\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HossamBadrawi\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Gas Deal Between Egypt and Israel: The Logic of Interests and the Limits of National Security By Hossam Badrawi - Dr. Hossam Badrawi","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Gas Deal Between Egypt and Israel: The Logic of Interests and the Limits of National Security By Hossam Badrawi - Dr. Hossam Badrawi","og_description":"I follow with great interest\u2014and with some concern\u2014the intensity of the debate surrounding the gas deal between Egypt and Israel. Hundreds of comments have reached me: some supportive, viewing the deal as a smart commercial transaction; others opposed, considering it a strategic and moral mistake. Between the two, the discussion at times drifted away from &hellip;","og_url":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/","og_site_name":"Dr. Hossam Badrawi","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hossambadrawi\/","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hossambadrawi\/","article_published_time":"2025-12-20T18:34:53+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-12-22T19:01:58+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1080,"height":1080,"url":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/603854089_1393303212160087_7635394796880337989_n.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr. Hossam Badrawi","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HossamBadrawi","twitter_site":"@HossamBadrawi","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Dr. Hossam Badrawi","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr. Hossam Badrawi","@id":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/71dac15488abcc9dd96527db12aee32a"},"headline":"The Gas Deal Between Egypt and Israel: The Logic of Interests and the Limits of National Security By Hossam Badrawi","datePublished":"2025-12-20T18:34:53+00:00","dateModified":"2025-12-22T19:01:58+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/"},"wordCount":1098,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/71dac15488abcc9dd96527db12aee32a"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/the-gas-deal-between-egypt-and-israel-the-logic-of-interests-and-the-limits-of-national-security-by-hossam-badrawi\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.hossambadrawi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/603854089_1393303212160087_7635394796880337989_n.jpg","articleSection":["2025 Collective Activities &amp; 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He is the former head of the Gynecology Department, Faculty of Medicine Cairo University. He conducted his post graduate studies from 1979 till 1981 in the United States. He was elected as a member of the Egyptian Parliament and chairman of the Education and Scientific Research Committee in the Parliament from 2000 till 2005. As a politician, Dr. Hossam Badrawi was known for his independent stances. His integrity won the consensus of all people from various political trends. During the era of former president Hosni Mubarak he was called The Rationalist in the National Democratic Party NDP because his political calls and demands were consistent to a great extent with calls for political and democratic reform in Egypt. He was against extending the state of emergency and objected to the National Democratic Party's unilateral constitutional amendments during the January 25, 2011 revolution. He played a very important political role when he defended, from the very first beginning of the revolution, the demonstrators' right to call for their demands. He called on the government to listen and respond to their demands. Consequently and due to Dr. Badrawi's popularity, Mubarak appointed him as the NDP Secretary General thus replacing the members of the Bureau of the Commission. During that time, Dr. Badrawi expressed his political opinion to Mubarak that he had to step down. He had to resign from the party after 5 days of his appointment on February 10 when he declared his political disagreement with the political leadership in dealing with the demonstrators who called for handing the power to the Muslim Brotherhood. Therefore, from the very first moment his stance was clear by rejecting a religion-based state which he considered as aiming to limit the Egyptians down to one trend. He considered deposed president Mohamed Morsi's decision to bring back the People's Assembly as a reinforcement of the US-supported dictatorship. He was among the first to denounce the incursion of Morsi's authority over the judicial authority, condemning the Brotherhood militias' blockade of the Supreme Constitutional Court. 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